Friday, April 30, 2010

Understanding California Foreclosures And How They Can Hurt California's Economy

By Ben Johnson

When considering California foreclosures and how they affect California, consider how many different things had to have gone wrong for the Golden State to have ended up with the foreclosure issues it now is facing. Rampant speculation and unbridled exuberance masked the fact that the good times could not possibly have lasted forever, though many thought they would.

For around 10 years, from the mid-90s to about 2005, the Golden State had some of the most vigorous and exuberant real estate markets in the country. Prior to 1995, most people everywhere considered that a home would be something one would purchase and then live in for quite some time. As a result, home values remained fairly steady and prices rose at a very measured pace, for the most part.

And this is where the first issue with the increasing rate of CA foreclosures began to show itself; in the fact that home buyers were expecting to take profits from a home not soon after they purchased it. What this means is that they were loading more debt onto the home in the form of second mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) as well as expecting a large profit from a sale in the future.

It wasn't uncommon during the 1995 to 2005 run-up in real estate prices in California to see buyers get into a home and get out a year or two later with a 30% return on their investment. Any person with economic savvy would have said that this wouldn't have been able to last forever, but unbridled exuberance convinced many that it could, unfortunately.

Put all of the excessive enthusiasm for California real estate together with the fact that many people were getting into this real estate by purchasing more home than they actually could afford and it's easy to see how real problems would soon begin to develop. Many people sitting in homes that they'd purchased at low initial monthly payments saw those payments rise and, as a result, any hope of profit disappear.

There's a basic weakness in a formula, when it comes to a house, that presupposes the ever-increasing rise of property values and that's that the market cannot remain on an upswing forever and especially when a recession hits, which it finally did in 2007. California actually began to feel a softening its own markets, though, in 2005 but many missed the early warning signs, unfortunately.

Once Golden State property values started on a downward swing, that drop was only intensified by the fact that financial markets themselves tanked in late 2008. At that point, California foreclosures really began to increase as many home owners found themselves in even more dire fiscal straits than could have been foreseen at the time many of these homes were purchased, shortly before the recession.

As to what the rate of CA foreclosures might mean for California, most would say that a period of decline and a shakeout accompanied by a solution to California's budget woes and structural defects in its real estate markets is necessary. With so many homes sitting in foreclosure or unsold, California is going to have to work hard to improve itself, which is something most hope it does soon.

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Thursday, April 29, 2010

Getting To The Crux Of How California Foreclosures Are Affected By The Current Recession

By Sterling Sliver

The current recession and California foreclosures in the Golden State should be studied in order to understand how what happens out in California can eventually spill over to the rest of the nation. It's especially important to study this issue if the time is coming when getting back into California real estate markets it's going to happen. This can help one to avoid repeating the same mistakes, at least.

Probably only those who have been living in outer space or in a deep cave haven't heard that the country -- and especially California -- has been suffering from one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression. At the present time, California's nickname ("the Golden State") doesn't seem to be particularly apropos, though most feel that it certainly will be at some point in the future.

This may be a slight miscalculation on the part of many people, though it's true that the rate of CA foreclosures is tracking slightly above the rate across the rest of the nation. In truth, there are six California cities in the top 10 cities across the country who are leading the nation in the rate of foreclosure. It's a diverse group, with some in the north and some in the south as well.

There are many different reasons for why the Golden State and its housing market has found itself in the doldrums, including that too many people were out there chasing properties that they thought they could make a quick buck off of, relatively speaking. In good times, there's nothing wrong with this, but when the recession kicks in it can hurt people caught on the short end of the market timing strategy.

The possibility that the state could pull itself and its housing inventory out of this issue isn't helped by the fact that there seems to be little prospect that the current recession will ease off in any appreciable way for the foreseeable future. Some economists believe that significant hiring and new employment won't begin to occur for several years, as a matter of fact.

What this usually means when it comes to real estate is that a shortage of ready and willing buyers will continue, especially out in California. Additionally, the Golden State suffers from a number of budget issues -- some structural and some beyond its control -- which also isn't helped by the fact that more people are moving out and are moving in. This affects revenue collection, for one.

When a state like California starts experiencing consistent out-migration it's just a fact that the rate of CA foreclosures will rise over the short run and maybe over the mid-run. At present, it's hurting because there just isn't a large group of buyers on the market looking to get back into homes in California that probably are more costly than their true market value is at present.

If there's any upside to the fact of the rate of CA foreclosures it's that California will be acting as an example to the rest of the country and its leadership that taking strong action to control uncertain circumstances may be the way to go in the future. Given that 2010 is an election year, it may be that California will not see additional strong action again until January of 2011, it would seem.

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Friday, April 16, 2010

How To Understand California Foreclosures And Their Affect On The Golden State

By Janey Abreu

Understanding how California foreclosures have affected California is actually easy to gain. For the most part, the market in terms of real estate and how it needed a steady supply of willing and able buyers has dried up. It will continue to stay dry until home values have reached a stable equilibrium in the future. While they continue seeking that equilibrium point, foreclosures are going to continue to be around as a phenomenon.

Many real estate experts trace the beginning of the long and steep fall into the currently-high rate of CA foreclosures that the state's experiencing back to the start of the recession. In California, it looks to have actually begun as early as 2005 or 2006 while the nationwide recession began picking up steam in late 2007. The housing boom, though, gave everybody a false sense of security for some time, though.

By late 2008, the housing market bubble had finally burst. California's property inventory began to take a steep dive in terms of median prices and continued to dive for longer than much of the rest of the housing inventory and other parts of the country. Factor in, as well that the Golden State faced serious budget and financial problems and one begins to see how CA foreclosures began to climb in reaction.

Much of this helps to explain why many home owners and other property holders are now in possession of property in homes that are way more costly in terms of ownership than they're actually worth. They'd like to dump these properties but they have no choice or ability because those properties are priced close to market value. With a decline due to the recession, home prices fell accordingly and not surprisingly, it should be said.

Nowadays, in reaction, many present home owners are looking at an option that used to be considered a very last resort just a decade ago. It would seem that these owners are considering going directly into foreclosure or just walking away from their homes, which might make some sense considering they owe much more than the home is worth or will be worth in the future. This may be due in part because people no longer look at homes as purely "homes" anymore.

Now, they see these investment instruments -- which they hoped to draw good profit from over a very short term (usually from 1 to 3 years) -- and wonder why they want to keep fighting to stay in the property. Given that it doesn't look like property values are going to increase appreciably in the short or maybe even the medium-term, they tend to walk.

It was bad luck for many of these homeowners that the markets began to tank just as they were getting into them. As a result, they owe more than the home could fetch in the newly-adjusted markets and they may even have suffered a loss of employment due to the concurrent recession, which was actually strengthened by this housing bubble bursting as it did.

As with any economic cycle over time, it's a sure bet that the rate of CA foreclosures will eventually begin to decline, though it's a very uncertain bet just when that's going to be. A few markets in California are showing a little improvement in median home values and looked to have finally touched bottom. California, resilient as ever, will eventually bounce back, every economist says.

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Sunday, April 11, 2010

Coming To Grips With How California Foreclosures Tend To Impact All Real Estate Markets

By Jack Bennington

California's economy and how California foreclosures affect it as well as the broader nationwide economy should be studied, if only to figure out the existing recession and what touched it off. This is important because anything that takes place in California eventually makes its way east, as was demonstrated when California real estate helped to touch off a collapse in real estate markets around the country.

The seeds of the current recession seem to have been planted in two places; California and Wall Street. Whether one could have happened without the other is a discussion for other far more highly trained people such as economists and the like. What's obvious, though, is that California was at least the fabled canary in a coal mine that nobody paid attention to when it finally fell to the ground.

For at least several years before the financial markets suffered their deepest decline in ages back in late 2008, California had been sending out smoke signals (which were actually fires from the economic conflagration the state's deepening budget woes was creating) that were being mostly ignored by real estate speculators, not only in California but also in Florida and Arizona among several states.

It would seem that real estate values had been declining for well over three years prior to the final 2008 descent from which home values in California and elsewhere are only now just finally starting to recover from. Make no mistake, though; this "recovery" is very minor, very fragile and very much in danger of collapsing at the slightest panic in the markets and especially in California.

It might, therefore, be said that CA foreclosures should have continued to serve as warning signs because six of the top 10 cities in terms of the rates of foreclosure are sitting in California. Arizona, Florida and California, in fact, make up 44% of all foreclosures across the country nowadays. These should have been clarion calls that shouldn't have been disregarded, economists now say.

Combine all of that with the structural issues involved with formulating a solid budget for California (the famous Proposition 13 limits on property tax rate increases is thought by some economists to play a large role) and it's easy to see how something like CA foreclosures can affect much of the rest of the country. For one, they tend to scare investors off elsewhere.

The reason this is so is because investors in the broader markets as well as the housing market are very jumpy at present and aren't entirely sure that the country has reached bottom, at least in terms of home prices. They are reluctant to jump back into housing markets without at least an even chance of making back what they've put into it over the long run. This tends to depress markets, truth be told.

The broader economy, then, could be said to be predicted by the issues with the rate of CA foreclosures, possibly. When the rates out in California begin to finally decline over a defined period of time, it just may be that investors in the broader economy may feel more comfortable about jumping back in with any sort of enthusiasm, some economists are beginning to say.

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Thursday, April 1, 2010

Taking The Measure Of California Foreclosures And What Might Happen To California

By Ben Stilstein

How will the Golden State deal with California foreclosures at present and in the future? This question is much easier to ask than to answer, of course, especially when it comes to such a diverse state like California. It's been rocked by the recession as well as structural issues with its real estate markets, for sure, and any forecasting will need to take a look back to see how it all began in the first place.

Foreclosures in California, much like foreclosures elsewhere, occur when owners of property or real estate can no longer make the payments on their property or real estate. As with much of the rest of the country, many people bought into California homes with the expectation that they'd soon make a profit from the sale of those homes, and they were right for quite some time.

Soon enough, the effects of the recession put a stop to such speculation and it did so out in California well before the same phenomenon broke out around the rest of the country. Now, many who invested in homes with very low interest rate or low payment mortgages that would readjusted in the future are sitting on properties they can't sell and that they now can't afford.

Equally as unfortunate is the fact that many people began to look at homes as investment instruments rather than places they would live in for quite some time. They bought into properties that usually were increasing greatly in price within just a year so they bought much more of it than they really couldn't afford, expecting they'd be able to get into and out of the market with a nice profit.

They fail to take into account that every boom is eventually followed by a bust and that the trick would be in timing the market. However, the bust happened quite suddenly and many people sitting in the real estate market or living in a home they thought they'd be up to sell for profit were caught out. The rate of CA foreclosures, though, this time is also partly due to the willingness of people to go straight to foreclosure, which is a new phenomenon.

There are also structural issues with the way California housing markets are set up and also with how the state is unable to adequately bank money for a rainy day when it comes to stabilizing its markets, some of which is due to Proposition 13, the anti-property tax law. Without adequate mechanisms, it was inevitable that the rate of CA foreclosures would go up, and it most certainly did.

The first thing that the state probably should try to do is stabilize the foreclosure rate and prevent it from increasing any further, and the federal government has been helping in that regards with a number of innovative programs that might help. Getting the word out to many California property owners, though, has been tough as has been getting them to forestall or put off foreclosure as a first, rather than last, resort.

CA foreclosures and the rate at which they've increased is a natural consequence of a wildly exuberant economic cycle that eventually had to move into a bust period. Add in that California as a state is restricted in what it can do in terms of property taxes on homes and land in California and it's easy to see that the state will really need to put together a comprehensive package to deal with the issue.

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