Saturday, June 12, 2010

Gaining Mastery Over California Foreclosures By Keeping A Hand In Golden State Housing

By Jack Bennenstein

Dealing with California foreclosures by sticking with California's real estate market in the face of, until recently, increasing foreclosure rates will take a very strong investor who comes to the game with strong financial backing and a lot of patience. It wasn't always the case that an investor needed to be this way out in California, because (prior to the real estate bust) any people played the game with little or no financial backing to speak of.

Much of the reason for why people were playing the game with not a lot of resources has to do with the speculative real estate environment that was going on around much of the country but especially in California. People were buying homes strictly as a short-term investment rather than as a place to live. They get into the market with very little money and got caught out when the market finally collapsed.

All of this short-term buying and selling (known as "flipping") case people a false sense of security. They didn't believe that the boom would ever and in that a bust was due sooner or later. Unfortunately, one need only look at California foreclosures as a prime indicator that every economic boom is eventually followed by a correction or "bust."

Nowadays, it looks to have happened everywhere. The nationwide foreclosure rate has been holding at about 300,000 per month, and California (along with several other states) contributes nearly 60% of that number. Many home owners and investors, who came to the game with little backing, have been forced to flee the markets. This is yet another reason why California foreclosures have become common out in the Golden State.

Whether or not any investor has the fortitude to stick with California real estate depends on that investor's tolerance for risk, for one. Patience and tolerance or not characteristics that many investors in the old California real estate market possessed in large degree. But, long-term prospects for an eventual rebound look strong, meaning the patient investor could make something of even the California market over time.

It doesn't seem that property values will be increasing at any appreciable rate for the next several years even out in California, which has featured some of the most desired and attractive real estate in the country for years and years. In investor from just a couple of years ago could expect a 20 to 30% return on investment from real estate in the space of a single year, in extreme cases.

Nowadays, investors looking to time the market to get in at its bottom and take control of several California foreclosures should expect a more reasonable rate of return of from 3% to 7% in the short-term, though prospects are better over the long term. They will certainly also improve as California stabilizes its housing markets and budget issues. Though a generalization, these figures have held true lately.

This isn't necessarily bad news for those who want to look into California real estate even in the face of CA foreclosures, because a "buy and hold" rather than a "buy and immediately dispose of" investment philosophy makes more sense for the long run, anyway. It would seem that the upcoming paradigm for investors in California will be strong finances and a lot of patience, to tell the truth.

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